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Fantasy Football Fantasy Football Aaron Rodgers gets a top matchup against a fantasy-friendly Indianapolis Colts secondary. Michael Hickey / Getty Images Every fantasy manager knows that schedule strength can greatly impact fantasy player performance. The more granular one can get in matchups, the better. My matchup points system uses various fantasy points and allowed metrics as a base. Then, variables such as the likelihood of a team getting into a high-scoring game and pass blocking/pass rush strength are added. These combined grades are then placed on a curve and given a 1-100 score, with 1 being the least favorable and 100 being the most favorable. Advertisement Keep in mind that these grades are all based on fantasy-scoring relevance. For example, as detailed in my soft secondaries and the receivers who’ll benefit most from them in fantasy football article, a defensive back who has a strong yards per attempt (YPA) allowed but a low PPR fantasy points per game (FPPG) allowed will be graded as a favorable matchup in this system. Over the years, I have found that the most valuable part of the weekly schedule strength analysis is on the outer margins, which this article will cover. It will highlight players with a matchup points total of 80 or higher and detail players with 20 or lower. Now that we’ve covered the basics, let’s move on to the best and worst matchups for Week 9. The list below shows the entire scope of players with favorable and unfavorable matchups. I’ll highlight players from each positional list, beginning with quarterbacks. Metrics are via Tru Media/PFF, Stathead or NFL Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted. Point references are in PPR unless otherwise noted. Aaron Rodgers, PIT (vs. IND): Rodgers is on a three-game streak with 16. 7 or more points. A matchup against a subpar Indianapolis secondary should extend that streak to four games. The Colts have five defensive backs who have allowed 10+ FPPG since Week 5 and rank 30th in TE FPPG allowed in that same span. Bam Knight, ARI (at DAL): Knight made my recent list of the top running back prospects who can turn your season around. The Cowboys are the type of defense you want to start a running back against. Dallas ranks 29th in FPPG allowed on planned rush plays since Week 5. Kimani Vidal, LAC (at TEN): Vidal has been hit-or-miss since taking over as the Chargers’ lead running back. A matchup against the Titans defense makes him a likely hit this week. Tennessee has allowed the sixth-highest yards per rush on planned rush plays since Week 5. Advertisement Travis Etienne, JAX (at LV): Etienne is on a three-game streak of scoring fewer than 10 points. Facing a Raiders defense that ranks 26th in FPPG allowed on planned rush plays over the past month should end that streak. Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston and Ladd Mc Conkey, LAC (at TEN): The Titans secondary has downright atrocious pass coverage metrics. Tennessee has five defensive backs with a yards per target allowed of 9. 1 or higher since Week 4, and six defenders allowed a 104 or higher passer rating against the Colts in Week 8. Los Angeles will go after this secondary early and often. Get as many Chargers pass catchers into your lineups as you can. Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland, CHI (at CIN): It’s tough to overstate just how bad the Bengals defense has been against tight ends of late. Cincinnati has allowed a wildly high 27. 5 FPPG to tight ends since Week 5. That largesse should make Kmet and Loveland viable long-shot start candidates this week. Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith, PIT (vs. IND): The Colts defense has allowed more completions to tight ends than any other team since Week 5. Indianapolis also has the third-highest YPA allowed to tight ends in that span, making Freiermuth and Smith highly utilizable this week as potential long-shot start options. Alvin Kamara, NO (at LAR): Kamara has scored only 12. 4 points over the past two weeks combined. Facing a Rams defense that is giving up only 10. 1 FPPG on planned rushes since Week 5 does not bode well for a positive change. Consider benching Kamara in most leagues. Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, MIN (at DET): Jones and Mason combined to score only 6. 6 points in the Week 8 debacle against a very good Chargers defense. A repeat is possible versus a Detroit defense that has allowed only 8 FPPG on planned rushes over the past month. The Lions are also well rested after a Week 8 bye. Take caution when considering whether to start Jones or Mason this week. Advertisement Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WSH (vs. SEA): The man most fantasy managers know as Bill has posted dismal fantasy numbers of late. He has scored only 12. 5 points in the past three weeks. Seattle has allowed an incredibly low 2. 5 yards per rush on planned rushes since Week 5. Once you factor in the potential for Jayden Daniels to miss this week due to injury, it becomes very difficult to justify Croskey-Merritt in fantasy lineups. Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard, CAR (at GB): Dowdle has followed up two games with 32+ points in Weeks 5-6 with only 17 combined points in the next two weeks since Hubbard’s return. Facing a Green Bay defense that has given up only 7. 3 FPPG on planned rushes over the past four weeks suggests a turnaround is unlikely. Sit Dowdle if at all possible. That goes double for Hubbard since he has posted fewer than 10 points in every game he’s played in since Week 2. Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor, TEN (vs. LAC): Dike had a 100 score in the Week 8 edition of this article. He turned that favorable matchup into a 16-point game for the second week in a row. But now he’ll face the Chargers. Los Angeles ranks first in vertical FPPG allowed since Week 5 and has six defensive backs with a FPPG allowed mark below 5. Bench Dike and Ayomanor this week. Hunter Henry, NE (vs. ATL): Henry can’t be considered a go-to fantasy starter after four straight weeks with fewer than 8 points scored, but he’s still rostered in over 70% of ESPN and Yahoo leagues. A matchup against an Atlanta defense that ranks first in FPPG allowed to tight ends since Week 5 means Henry will be a highly-rostered player who shouldn’t find his way into a starting lineup.   Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle KC Joyner is a contributor to The Athletic covering fantasy football and betting. Before joining The Athletic, KC was a senior writer for ESPN, and he has run The Football Scientist. com since 2004. He is the author of the "Scientific Football" book series and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle Is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts. " KC is a native Michigander. He attended the University of Michigan but moved to the warmer climate of Florida over 30 years ago. Follow KC on Twitter @KCJoyner TFS