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Premier League manager news conferences coming up Thursday's European action: Spurs, Rangers, Man Utd, Chelsea and more in action Watch all the goals from this week's Champions League matches Projections: Liverpool on course for first-placed finish, Arsenal set for second? Analysis: Saka's rise, City's defensive problems, Haaland's touches v Juve, Get Involved: #bbcfootball, via Whats App on 03301231826 or text 81111 (UK only, standard message rates apply) Alastair Telfer, Craig Nelson, Tasnim Chowdhury & Ben Ramsdale. Edited by Murray Burnell #bbcfootball, Whats App 03301231826, text 81111 (UK only, standard rates apply) The Champions League table is very tight (for example one win between 3rd and 19th). Goal difference will be important, and I expect a lot of change in the next 2 rounds of matches. J in Cardiff, enjoying the new format OK, we have laid out the odds for you about where each British side is likely to finish: The final piece to this Champions League jigsaw is who each side could face in the knockout stages. It's the kind of game all managers worth their salts say they do not play. .. but almost certainly do. Want to play? Well it requires quite a bit of lateral thinking. .. #bbcfootball, Whats App 03301231826, text 81111 (UK only, standard rates apply) It seems pretty obvious that Man City simply need to buy Cole Palmer and Julian Alvarez in the January transfer market and they'll be title contenders again. .. simples! .. . Russ Manchester City And finally, what about Manchester City's chances of missing out on the knockout stages? It seems there are three likely outcomes, according to Opta. They will win one of their final two matches at Paris St-Germain and at home to Club Brugge (31. 3%), pick up four points from those two games (24. 6%) or win both (25. 5%). Any of those outcomes would see the Premier League champions into the play-off phase. But if Pep Guardiola's side were to lose at PSG, then the current odds of them picking up no further points (4. 8%) will rise further - and that would spell the end of their Champions League dream, for another season at least. Celtic The strongest Opta prediction is that Celtic will finish the league phase on 12 points, so are expected to win one of their final games - which are at home to Swiss side Young Boys on 22 January and at Aston Villa the following week. That would assure the Scottish champions progress into the knockout stages, which would represent an excellent return for Brendan Rodgers' side. But there remains a 10. 8% chance that they will only add one more point to their tally, which would leave them sweating on potential qualification. Aston Villa Talking of Aston Villa, the Opta Supercomputer really cannot make up its mind where Unai Emery's side will finish. The chances of them ending up in third (5. 8%) are almost identical to the likelihood they will drop down to 15th (5. 2%). But maybe the question for Villa fans should be: "Who cares? " The fact is, they are being given a 0% chance of finishing 25th, meaning knockout football of some description come February is assured. Whatever happens after that, no computer can predict. .. #bbcfootball, Whats App 03301231826, text 81111 (UK only, standard rates apply) This year has thrown up a few nice surprises, especially with Aston Villa and Brest. I think this format gives the so-called minnows more of a chance, comparing to the old system. They have nothing to lose, and everything to gain. The old system was too unbalanced, it was the same old teams making it through, and the competition became a bit stale in my opinion. Now, everything could turn on a dime after two wins. For all the furore when it was announced, I'm quite enjoying this new format. Dan H Arsenal While the numbers strongly suggest Arsenal will finish second (28. 6%) or third (21. 1%), possibly one of the big surprises is that they are only being given a 2. 3% chance of finishing ninth - thus failing to secure a direct route into the last 16. The Gunners may be in third place at present, but are only one point above Borussia Dortmund in ninth. But Opta are giving them a 52% chance of winning their final two games - at home to Dinamo Zagreb and away to Girona - to finish on 19 points. In fact, they have a 2. 8% chance of finishing above Liverpool and Barcelona to top the standings. Liverpool Liverpool have won every one of their six Champions League games so far, the only team in the competition to have a 100% record. Opta's strongest prediction is that Arne Slot's team will maintain that run and finish the league phase with eight wins from eight. The Reds are being given a 36. 1% chance of beating their final two opponents - Lille at home and PSV Eindhoven away - to finish on a perfect 24 points. The pessimists among Liverpool fans should know that the club has been given a 0. 1% chance of dropping as low as eighth, but that is the worst that could happen so they are guaranteed progression directly into the last 16. An important question, which we will look at later, is how could their finishing position affect which team they could be drawn against in the knockout phase. Let's break down those Opta projections a little, and delve further into what they mean for each British team. .. #bbcfootball, Whats App 03301231826, text 81111 (UK only, standard rates apply) Looking at the CL table, Leipzig already eliminated is a real surprise and Bologna need some luck along with 2 wins too. But surely the biggest surprise is one of Uefa's representatives for the Fifa Club World Cup teetering on the edge of elimination! Yes - the great RB Salzburg. .. Chris OK, so these are only projected rankings, not real life, but bear with us. It will come as no surprise that Opta's Supercomputer, external has given Liverpool an 84. 8% chance of finishing top of the Champions League standings after the end of the league phase. Other key takeaways from the latest projections include: NB: If City win their final two games they will finish on 14 points - projections show teams will need 17 points or more to make the top eight and qualify directly for the last 16. Opta have also kindly crunched the numbers for us in their Supercomputer and come up with some likely projections of where every team will finish in the league phase. Spoiler alert - every British team will qualify for the knockout stages. Phew, glad that's sorted. .. This graph shows roughly how many points will be needed to qualify for the knockout stages of the Champions League. The predictions were made after the fifth round of matches, but offer a decent guide to what points tally teams will need after eight matches to make it through. The black bars show that the cut-off point to reach the play-off phase [ninth to 24th] will be 11 points, although 10 points should give teams more than a 90% chance. For now, that is the mark that both Celtic and Manchester City will have in their minds. So two draws or one win could be enough for Celtic, who are currently on nine points. City are on eight points, so one win from their final two games should do it. For those teams hoping to finish in the top eight and make it directly through to the last 16, the yellow bars show that 16 points would give them more than an 80% chance of achieving their goal, 17 points and they are almost certainly through. So Arsenal and Aston Villa need four points from their final two games to retain their places in the top eight. And then there is Liverpool - with 18 points, Opta's predictions show they already have enough to be assured of a place in the last 16. So we know how the Champions League knockout places will be decided and when the remaining matches of the league phase will take place. Let's just remind ourselves how the five British sides stand and who they will play in their remaining two matches: Liverpool - 1st on 18 pts, with a three-point lead over Barcelona in second place Arsenal - 3rd, level with five other teams on 13 pts but above them on goal difference, with just a one-point cushion over ninth place Aston Villa - in 5th place, also on 13 pts Celtic - 21st on 9 pts, two points above the elimination zone Man City - 22nd on 8 pts, one point above Paris St-Germain in the elimination zone, with a trip to the Ligue 1 champions up next So just to recap, the top eight teams after eight games of the new extended league phase of the Champions League will go straight through to the last 16. Sides that finish from ninth to 24th will progress to knockout football but face an extra two-legged play-off, which will be played on 11/12 February and 18/19 February. Teams that finish 25th or below will be eliminated from European competition. The league phase will resume on 21/22 January before the final round of matches on 29 January. Got that? Right, we move on. .. Sides that finish from ninth to 24th face an extra round of the knockout phase, which is basically a two-legged 'play-off'. Manchester City and Celtic are currently in that group of teams, the question is: can they stay there? The sides finishing 25th or below will be eliminated from European competition. They won't fall into the Europa League, as in previous seasons. Let's start with another look at the Champions League table. It's so big - with 36 teams in the new format - we have to split it in two. Here is the top half. The important thing to note is that three British sides - Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa - are in the top eight. If they stay there after eight games they will qualify directly for the last 16. OK, we are going to break down for you what the British clubs need to do to qualify for the knockout stages and the latest Opta projections about where they are likely to finish in the standings. While we put all of that together for you, let's have a look at some goals. Click here to watch the highlights of this week's Champions League ties. #bbcfootball, Whats App 03301231826, text 81111 (UK only, standard rates apply) Curiously perhaps a chunk of the problem at City rests with buying Haaland. With him in the team it's all gone a bit route one - get him the ball as quickly as possible and hope he bangs in enough goals to win the game. Knowing you're leaking at the back. But that's not Pep's style and I imagine he'd be happier working with Palmer, Alvarez, Cancelo even, building a fluid, possession based system. Simon, Kent Last Updated 12th December 2024 at 01: 18 Please Note: All times UK. Tables are subject to change. The BBC is not responsible for any changes that may be made. © 2024 BBC. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read about our approach to external linking.