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By TARA ANSON-WALSH, FOOTBALL REPORTER Published: 02: 31 AEDT, 13 March 2026 | Updated: 07: 36 AEDT, 13 March 2026 114 View comments The Opta supercomputer has confirmed that Arsenal are no longer favourites to win a maiden Champions League title after their dreary 1-1 draw against Leverkusen on Wednesday night. The Gunners still have the return leg at the Emirates to play, a game in which they remain strong favourites to win. The supercomputer also predicts that they have the best chance of any English team of making the final (46. 18 per cent) – although it now says Bayern Munich are the most likely to beat them to the trophy. The German side, with Harry Kane leading their line, are now 26. 3 per cent likely to win the competition, with the Gunners falling to 22. 1 per cent. Arsenal are no longer favourites to win the Champions League - with Opta's supercomputer predicting they will be pipped to the title by Bayern Munich Prior to this week's first-leg matches in the Round of 16, Premier League teams were in a dominant position in Opta's estimations, backed up by a strong league-phase round. All six Premier League sides finished in the top 12, with Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea placing in the top six. Bayern Munich - 26. 34 per cent Arsenal - 22. 07 per cent Barcelona - 12. 10 per cent PSG - 10. 17 per cent Real Madrid - 8. 34 per cent Atletico Madrid - 6. 14 per cent Liverpool - 4. 46 per cent Newcastle - 2. 63 per cent Man City - 2. 27 per cent Bodo/Glimt - 2. 15 per cent Leverkusen - 0. 99 per cent Galatasaray - 0. 85 per cent Chelsea - 0. 76 per cent Sporting Lisbon - 0. 50 per cent Tottenham - 0. 05 per cent Before a ball had been kicked in any of the knockout games, a Premier League team was predicted to win the Champions League significantly more times than teams from any other league. Arsenal made up most of that number, at 26. 7 per cent, with Liverpool (11. 4) and City (11. 1) also considered serious contenders. But this latest round of results left not a single English side recording a win and, with 16 goals shipped, English teams conceded more goals than ever before in a single Champions League gameweek. Newcastle have a tricky task ahead at the Nou Camp with everything all square. And Liverpool have just a one-goal deficit to overcome, and the Anfield crowd will certainly play their part in getting a result against Galatasaray. Meanwhile, Tottenham, City and Chelsea appear down and out as they head into the second leg with three-goal deficits. Of the 51 past occasions where a team has lost the first leg of a Champions League knockout game by three or more goals, only four have progressed – and one of them was helped by the now-defunct away goals rule (Roma vs Barcelona in 2017-18). City, who lost 3-0 at Real Madrid, saw their hopes plummet by the greatest distance – to just 2. 3 per cent. Meanwhile Chelsea now sit at 0. 50 per cent, with Tottenham given just a 0. 05 per cent chance of winning it. Your browser does not support iframes.
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