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EPL Illustration: Dan Goldfarb/The Athletic; Photo: Stuart Mac Farlane/Getty Images Welcome to the 11th edition of The Alternative Premier League Table, where each Thursday, Anantaajith Raghuraman analyses the entire division through a specific lens. After looking at goal contributions from new faces for each club last week, this edition’s focus is on expected goals against (x GA). Advertisement As usual, the article that follows is long but detailed, so please settle down and enjoy it all — or simply search for the side you want to read about. The Premier League has seen 268 goals scored across 100 matches, the fewest across the first 10 rounds since 2018-19. There has been a noticeably increased emphasis on defensive solidity in the early weeks, with six 0-0 draws already after just 16 across 380 matches last season. Teams conceded five or more big chances 31 times in the first 10 weeks in 2024-25 — that has dropped to 16. All of that has led to us structuring this week’s Alternative Table on expected goals against (x GA), a metric that measures the quality of chances that a team concedes. Key takeaways from this week include: Arsenal’s emergence as the favourites to win the league has been built on a statistically ridiculous defensive record. Their three goals conceded matches the least after 10 games since 2018-19, joining Manchester City, who won the title that season, and 2021-22 Chelsea, who finished third. In terms of x GA, they only trail that domestic-treble winning City team, who conceded just 4. 7x G in their opening 10 games. Incredibly, Arsenal are yet to concede a chance worth over 0. 5x G, with Erling Haaland’s goal in their 1-1 draw with City the highest at 0. 43. Only 17 of the 75 shots they have conceded have an x G of 0. 1 or more and their shots against map below shows a dearth of opponent efforts from inside the six-yard box. Arsenal have individuals playing at the peak of their powers, but this is a team effort, driven by a disciplined high press, compact midfield and impenetrable defence. Bonus: they do not yet have a rival like that 2018-19 City team did in Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool, who conceded just four goals and 7. 7x GA in their first 10 games. Advertisement Manchester City are the closest to Arsenal on the actual table, currently six points behind after their win over Bournemouth. Pep Guardiola's side have the third-best x GA record at 9. 8, conceding eight goals so far from 94 shots, a sizeable improvement on 2024-25 when they allowed fewer shots (76, only one more than Arsenal in 2025-26) but higher-quality chances (10. 9x GA). Pep Guardiola has found solutions to the problems that plagued them when they struggled with the kind of directness they used to their advantage in the 3-1 win over Bournemouth over the weekend. They are winning a significantly higher percentage of aerial duels (58 per cent in 2025-26 vs 47 in the first 10 matches of 2024-25), while positioning themselves better to win second balls. Their average possession has dropped from 64 to 58 per cent, but doing so has allowed them to organise themselves better out of possession. Tottenham Hotspur led our Week 7 Alternative Table in x G overperformance and are still atop those ranks (17 goals from 10. 2x G, an overperformance of 6. 8). They lead the x GA overperformance charts too, conceding 14. 6x G but just eight goals. A big reason for that has been the brilliance of Guglielmo Vicario, who leads all Premier League goalkeepers in goals prevented (5. 3). As the map below shows, he has saved multiple high-quality chances to keep Spurs in matches. This save from Chelsea’s Joao Pedro over the weekend was superb, from a shot worth 0. 7x G. Spurs are a middle-of-the-road side for shots faced (12. 3 per 90) and shots faced on target (4. 2 per 90). Worryingly for Thomas Frank, they lead the league in errors leading to a shot or goal (14). Opponents have converted only three of those errors, but Spurs simply cannot afford to keep giving them away, or their relatively high league position will soon evaporate. Advertisement At the other end of the spectrum, Wolves have not been able to catch a break, conceding a league-worst 22 goals from 12. 98x GA (ninth worst). Four of their seven such errors have ended in goals, two of which were match-winners for Burnley and Bournemouth. They have conceded only six chances worth 0. 5x G or more, but they have allowed opponents opportunities to get shots on target far too easily. Wolves’ 6. 7 shots on target conceded per 90 is the joint fourth-worst mark for a team after 10 games of a Premier League season since the start of 2018-19. Two of the four teams in their vicinity (2023-24 Sheffield United with 8. 0 per 90 and 2019-20 Norwich City with 6. 9 per 90) were relegated, but 2024-25 Brentford and 2018-19 Burnley survived. There might still be some hope, especially if Wolves get an extended new manager bounce for the second season running. Sunderland have a much more consistent record, ranking fourth in x GA (11. 4) and second in goals conceded (eight). Regis Le Bris’ side, as I outlined with my colleague Cerys Jones after their 2-1 win at Chelsea, are incredibly disciplined out of possession. They often drop into a 4-4-2 without the ball, defending deep but with energetic midfielders capable of jumping out of the second line to press opposition defenders. Their 53 per cent duel success rate is the best in the league. As the map below shows, Sunderland have been able to limit the quality of opposition efforts too at 0. 08x G per open-play shot. The Stadium of Light has been a defensive fortress, with Sunderland’s 4. 3x GA in five home games the fourth-best mark in the league. Leaders Arsenal travel there on Saturday — what are the chances of a goalless draw? Manchester United rank third from bottom in x GA at 15. 8 while owning the joint fifth-worst record for goals conceded with 16 (same as Brentford). Advertisement The most they have conceded in a single game was 2. 8 in their 2-1 win over Liverpool. Manchester City (2. 6) and Brentford (2. 0) caused them plenty of problems too, as did Forest at the weekend with 1. 9x G. A major contributor has been their struggles from defensive set pieces, carrying on from 2024-25, with United’s 6. 4x GA per 100 corners the worst in the league. But there have been struggles in open play too, particularly while defending crosses and cutbacks. Brentford’s 13. 1 x GA after 10 matches is an improvement on 2024-25, when they allowed 17. 1, conceding 20 goals and winning just four matches. Thirty-eight per cent of their shots faced have been from outside the box, the fifth-highest mark in the league. Brentford have allowed just four shots worth 0. 4x G or more, two of which were penalties (with Caoimhin Kelleher saving one). The worry has been their errors within the box. Nathan Collins has endured a difficult start, which has contributed to their aerial prowess dropping off. Brentford have won 50 per cent of their total duels and 45 per cent of their aerial duels in their own box, down from 68 and 62 per cent after the first 10 matches of 2024-25. That overall duel mark is the lowest after 10 games since they returned to the Premier League. Bournemouth, meanwhile, have made significant strides in the same area. They have won 64 per cent of their total duels and 63 per cent in the air in the penalty area, both their highest marks after the first 10 matches since returning to the top-flight in 2022. Andoni Iraola’s side also lead the league in errors leading to a shot or goal, with just two after making 22 across 2024-25. Their direct style still contributes to opponents creating quality chances, with 4. 6 on-target shots conceded per game. Manchester City toyed with Bournemouth's press to score three times last weekend, and Bournemouth have shown vulnerability in dealing with runs in behind. But their overall defensive outlook is bright despite a summer of great change. They have been particularly excellent at home, conceding just two goals and 2. 6x G (both only behind Arsenal). Advertisement Newcastle United have shown great defensive solidity, ranking only behind Arsenal in x GA with 9. 1, their best record after 10 matches since the start of 2018-19. Eddie Howe’s side use a unique tactical approach out of possession, dropping into a 4-5-1. This has largely worked well in stifling teams but, as The Athletic's Liam Tharme explains, it can be exploited when they defend zonally rather than with man-marking, particularly with their defensive line dropping by a few metres this season compared to previous years. Many of the chances and goals Newcastle have conceded, especially away from home, have come from teams exploiting this weakness using players in between the lines or making delayed runs into space. But their box defending has generally been excellent, with only two big chances conceded inside their defensive penalty area (only bettered by Arsenal’s one). Leeds United’s 17 goals conceded is the fourth-worst mark but the underlying numbers hint at defensive upside, especially at Elland Road. They have conceded the fewest big chances at home (three, level with Bournemouth) and rank third in x GA at home (3. 2). Only two sides — Arsenal and Manchester City — have allowed fewer shots per game in the opening 10 matches than their 10. 2. Closing down opponents and lapses in concentration have been concerns, with Leeds allowing several shots from outside the box (39 per cent in total, only behind Wolves’ 43 per cent), some of which have gone in off deflections. Burnley have the highest x GA at 21. 0, resulting in 19 goals conceded, the second-worst mark. They have conceded 17. 8 shots per match (6. 0 on target), needing Martin Dubravka to make multiple important saves. Dubravka has conceded 2. 7 non-penalty goals fewer than expected, as the graph below shows. Their fixture list has been a contributor. Burnley have played Tottenham, both Manchester sides, Liverpool and Arsenal already, preferring to drop deep and invite pressure in those games. They conceded more than 2. 0x G in each of those outings, aggregating 103 shots faced (33 on target), allowing 14 of their 19 total goals in these games. Advertisement Chelsea, Brentford, Crystal Palace and Newcastle await after the international break, so their back line will be tested again in the short term. Burnley’s weekend opponents West Ham United are just above them in shots conceded at 14. 5 per match with 15. 7x GA. A primary concern has been their frailty from corners, with their nine goals conceded from these situations the worst by a club after the first 10 games of a Premier League season since the start of 2018-19. They have conceded 3. 5 chances per game from set plays, with only Aston Villa (3. 6) letting in more this season. Goalkeeping has been an issue, too. Alphonse Areola and Mads Hermansen have conceded 3. 7 goals more than expected with a combined save rate of 57 per cent. Only Wolves’ duo of Jose Sa and Sam Johnstone (4. 5 goals conceded over expectation with a 50 per cent save rate) have done worse. Villa seemed to have turned a corner during their four-game winning streak in which they conceded just 3. 5x G after recording 8. 4x GA in their first five matches. They limited Liverpool to four shots on target, too, while dominating much of the first half, only to concede following an error from Emiliano Martinez. The mistake speaks to a larger point, too. No team has given away possession in their own attacking third more frequently this season than Villa (4. 8 times per match), which allows them little time to fall into a solid defensive structure. Their defending from set pieces has also been poor, and while there has been some improvement, Villa need to be more secure at the back. Just behind them in possessions lost in their own attacking third are Chelsea (4. 7 per match), whose x GA is the seventh-worst in the league. In addition to lapses in concentration and a lack of consistency in central defence, ending a few matches with 10 men has contributed to opponents creating more chances against them. They have made 10 errors leading to a shot or goal, the third most behind Spurs (14) and Forest (10). Advertisement Chelsea — and Moises Caicedo in particular — are good at snuffing out danger, with their 7. 4 interceptions per match in their own half only trailing Burnley’s 7. 7. But Enzo Maresca’s side need to be more disciplined tactically and otherwise if they are to stop conceding chances. The win over Tottenham (0. 1x GA) was a step in the right direction after six consecutive matches of conceding 1. 3 x GA or more. Nottingham Forest have struggled to limit teams from creating quality chances, ranking second last in x GA with 16. 2. They have conceded 1. 5x G or more in five of their 10 matches, including 3. 5 to Newcastle last month, all of which have ended in defeats. Compared to the first 10 matches of 2024-25, Forest are facing significantly more shots on target (5. 5 per match, up from 3. 6), while making 13 errors leading to a shot or goal (up from four). Like West Ham, set pieces are a concern, with five goals conceded from corners to go with three penalties. Sean Dyche has inherited a quality squad but quick improvements on these fronts are necessary. Liverpool have struggled to defend set pieces too, conceding six times from dead-ball situations (only behind Forest and West Ham on nine each). Teams have gone direct against them and benefited, with long balls contributing to 19 per cent of opponents’ total passes, the highest in the first 10 games since the start of 2018-19. But Liverpool’s bigger issues have been with their press from the front and in fighting for second balls despite winning 57 per cent of their aerial duels, leaving spaces in midfield that teams can exploit. Brentford’s Mikkel Damsgaard and Manchester United’s Amad set up their team-mates for goals in this fashion in October. Villa threatened to do so in the first half, too, but Liverpool dealt with them better after the opening 30 minutes. Merseyside rivals Everton have benefited from some resolute defending in the box. No team has blocked more shots than them with 5. 3 per match, with James Tarkowski the defender with the most x G prevented by blocking a shot at 1. 1 (Bournemouth’s Marcos Senesi is second on 1. 0). It does not always come off, with Tarkowski deflecting Granit Xhaka’s shot past Jordan Pickford on Monday. Advertisement Everton also lead the league in aerial duels contested (39. 1 per match), with a 54 per cent success rate (fourth best). Fulham are middle of the pack for overall x GA (12th) but rank first in x G conceded from fast breaks at 2. 1, with two of those resulting in goals. Marco Silva’s side have become Premier League staples in part by being able to lock down space in midfield but have been easy to play through this season. They have conceded 11 shots from sequences beginning in the opposition’s defensive half and ending in a shot within two passes, the latest example being Bruno Guimaraes’ winner for Newcastle on the weekend. Fulham rank bottom in duel success rate in the middle third (44 per cent), which is a cause for concern. Crystal Palace are one of the league’s best teams at absorbing pressure, with no team averaging more clearances (33. 3 per match), while only Wolves (21. 6 per match) have more tackle attempts than their 20. 1. Palace’s out-of-possession game relies on a solid defensive core, helped by narrow-pressing forwards and an aggressive mid-block preventing teams from cutting through them. They have allowed the joint-second-fewest shots on target (3. 2 per game, level with Chelsea and Manchester City and behind Arsenal’s 1. 9). Even when oppositions find a way to get past their structure, Dean Henderson has stood tall, preventing 3. 8 non-penalty goals, only behind Vicario. That leaves us with Brighton, who have conceded 2. 6 goals more than expected. Prior to the 3-0 win over Leeds, Fabian Hurzeler’s men had gone 21 matches without a clean sheet. Errors are a factor. Brighton players have been dispossessed 10. 3 times per game, a rate lower than only Aston Villa (10. 7). Turning the ball over while dribbling gives them less time to reorganise defensively, while the opposition can attack at pace. Brighton have conceded seven shots from fast breaks, the third-most in the league. Conceding high-quality chances has contributed to Bart Verbruggen recording a save rate of just 57 per cent, despite preventing 1. 1 goals. Brighton looked much more secure against Leeds, who created just 0. 5x G over the weekend, but will be tested by Palace at Selhurst Park this weekend. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle Anantaajith Raghuraman (or Ananth) is a tactics and data writer covering football. He covered Indian football for Sportskeeda and analysed teams from numerous European leagues outside of the top five for Total Football Analysis prior to joining The Athletic. He is currently based in London. Follow Anantaajith on Twitter @anantaajith