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EPL Welcome to the seventh edition of The Alternative Premier League Table, where each Thursday, Anantaajith Raghuraman analyses the entire division through a specific lens. After looking at each club’s usage of long balls last week, this time our qualifier is expected goals and how teams have performed against the metric so far. Advertisement As usual, the article that follows is long but detailed, so please settle down and enjoy it all — or search for the side you want to read about. Expected goals is, put simply, a measure of chance quality — one based on the historical performance of shots taken from similar scenarios. One in a hundred shots from 50 yards might end up in the back of the net, whereas around 79 per cent of penalties are scored, which is why spot kicks have an x G value of… 0. 79. Some teams create few chances but finish well, some generate a lot of low-value shots from distance, some hit streaks when it feels like everything goes in. What x G is particularly good at is showing long-term trends. This week’s alternative table shows each side’s x G and then goals minus x G, to show who is overperforming and who is underperforming. Six games into a season is relatively early to be drawing conclusions, but there are some interesting takeaways already, including: As with most pieces of Manchester United content these days, optimism seems to be accompanied by negativity. United’s major concern in Ruben Amorim's 2024-25 debut season as head coach was an inability to create chances. They averaged just 1. 3x G per game in 27 Premier League outings, scoring 32 times. Their x G was better under predecessor Erik ten Hag and caretaker appointment Ruud van Nistelrooy (1. 6x G per game in 11 combined matches) but finishing remained a concern with just 12 goals. United have averaged 2. 1 x G per match so far in 2025-26. They are creating better-quality chances, partly thanks to the signings of Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha but one contributor is the volume of shots (15. 3 per game, highest in the league). A significant chunk of those coming from outside the box, as the map below shows, means they add to United's cumulative x G but are not usually good-quality chances. Mbeumo (20 goals from 12. 3x G) and Cunha (15 from 8. 7x G) were two of the Premier League's three biggest x G overperformers last season too but have one goal between them this time from 2. 8x G. Add in two 0. 79x G misses from the penalty spot by Bruno Fernandes and United being where they are seems to be due to a lack of conviction in the final third. Luck is a factor too, with United hitting the woodwork four times, more than any other team. Advertisement Tottenham have built on their 2024-25 campaign, when they scored 4. 3 goals more than expected (64 from 59. 7x G), by nearly matching that number after six matches. There will be questions over sustainability. Richarlison’s double against Burnley came from just 0. 24x G and Lucas Bergvall’s header against West Ham United was worth just 0. 09x G. Simultaneously, Brighton & Hove Albion defender Jan Paul van Hecke’s own goal, created by an excellent Mohammed Kudus cross, was understandably allotted no x G. Joao Palhinha’s finish against Manchester City was worth only 0. 14x G due to the number of players on the line, despite it being from close range. Tottenham’s greater concern will be the team creating only 6. 9x G over six matches. But with Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison, two of their best creators, out injured, and the team still adapting to new head coach Thomas Frank’s demands, that should improve with time. Promoted Burnley’s x G overperformance may take a few by surprise. Their fixture list has meant they have played backs-to-the-wall football for much of the first six weeks but there have been glimpses of attacking potential. Jaidon Anthony alone has accounted for 2. 1x G (46 per cent of Burnley’s total), scoring chances worth 0. 58x G and 0. 38x G against Sunderland and Manchester United respectively. Burnley rank joint-bottom for shots attempted (51 across six matches) but have scored with four of their six big chances. They have needed to prioritise quality over quantity and, it has to be said, have done it quite well. Brentford have also attempted just 51 shots but rank joint-second in x G per shot (0. 156), suggesting that their average shot quality is high. As their map below shows, a chunk of their opportunities have come in the zone around the penalty spot. Eighty-two per cent of their shots have come from within the box and 47 per cent have been on target, both the highest marks in the league. Part of the reason for that is Brentford’s directness, with new head coach Keith Andrews having them target Igor Thiago and Kevin Schade with passes over the top. Thiago’s second goal against Manchester United at the weekend had an x G of 0. 48, while Fabio Carvalho’s late equaliser against Chelsea was worth 0. 67x G. It's a reversion to a style that served the club well not so long ago in the Ivan Toney era, and so far it is working. Advertisement Brighton boast the best x G-per-shot rate in the league, marginally ahead of Brentford at 0. 16. The south-coast side have been notorious for underperforming their x G since becoming Premier League mainstays. Fabian Hurzeler’s 2024-25 debut season at their head coach was the first time Brighton overperformed their x G (66 league goals from 59. 2 x G) after managing only 283 goals from 314. 1x G between 2018-19 and 2023-24. But the first six weeks of 2025-26 have seen a return to underperformance. Danny Welbeck missed two chances worth 1. 6x G against Everton, first skying this cutback from Yankuba Minteh that was marginally behind him… … and then seeing his penalty saved by Jordan Pickford. Brighton have converted all their other chances worth 0. 41x G or more (including a penalty each from Matt O’Riley and James Milner), so this could only be a temporary blip. Crystal Palace are level with Brentford in expected goals per shot, with 68 per cent of their attempts being first-time strikes, the highest in the league. Palace’s two main routes to creating chances — from wide combinations involving their wingers and through balls from their midfielders — produce plenty of first-time shooting opportunities for their forwards. They have missed one big chance from each of these routes. The first was against Aston Villa as Ismaila Sarr could not convert a Daniel Munoz cross that was a tad too high for him. The opportunity was still measured at 0. 91x G. The second was this Yeremy Pino opportunity worth 0. 59x G against Sunderland, with the summer arrival shooting wide after running in one-on-one with goalkeeper Robin Roefs. Palace have hit the woodwork three times, with Mateta’s 3. 6x G resulting in just two goals, the worst individual underperformance in the league so far. Also flying high are Bournemouth and they have done it by putting away most of their chances, apart from in the 1-0 win at Tottenham. They have not created too many high-quality opportunities, with only two open-play shots worth more than 0. 3x G. Bournemouth rank third in share of shots from outside the box (39 per cent). Advertisement Alex Scott’s opener against Brighton and Eli Kroupi’s added-time winner away to Leeds United at the weekend were worth a combined 0. 14x G. Antoine Semenyo’s free kick earlier in the latter game (0. 16 x G) was another example of Bournemouth converting theoretically low-quality opportunities. Leeds have also performed pretty much up to expectation so far, scoring six goals from 6. 1x G, but a large part of that comes from their 3-1 win over Wolves, in which they managed just 0. 5x G. They created 1. 8x G against Bournemouth at the weekend but goals from Joe Rodon and Sean Longstaff were worth a combined 0. 07x G due to the volume of bodies the visitors defend with. The promoted Yorkshiremen are yet to create an open-play opportunity worth more than 0. 31x G and have missed all their chances worth 0. 17x G or more. Three of their best chances in x G terms have fallen to Dominic Calvert-Lewin, with this effort against Bournemouth, saved by Djordje Petrovic, being their best non-penalty chance in the six matches. West Ham United have effectively met expectations in front of goal too, which is not saying much for a team in 19th with four points who just sackweed their manager. They are another team to have struggled to generate high-quality opportunities, with just four shots worth 0. 3x G or more, one of which was Lucas Paqueta’s penalty against Nottingham Forest. Callum Wilson, who scored in that game, missed a counterattacking chance worth 0. 6x G late on, taking the ball off Jarrod Bowen’s feet after a brilliant dribble from his captain. West Ham have had a couple of brilliant finishes, including Paqueta’s strike against Chelsea and Bowen’s goal at Everton in Nuno Espirito Santo’s first match in charge on Monday night. Bowen is the league’s best individual x G overperformer after six games, with his three goals coming from just 0. 8x G. Nuno’s 62 Premier League matches at previous employers Nottingham Forest saw them outperform their x G by 12. 4. He will need to coax a similar overperformance from West Ham to get them out of their current predicament. Advertisement Forest have underperformed to start the season (five goals from 6. 5 x G). Their shot conversion ranks third from bottom at just under seven per cent (level with another of Nuno’s former teams, Wolves). The opening six weeks have seen opponents quite content to sit back and pack their defensive third, resulting in fewer clear-cut opportunities at goal. Forest have scored their best chance, with Chris Wood rounding Brentford goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher and scoring with a shot worth 0. 86x G in their opener. But their next-best chance was worth just 0. 31x G, coming in the same game, with Elliot Anderson blasting a volley over from inside the box while unopposed. Forest’s x G overperformance in 2024-25 was equally down to sharp finishing. They created 13 shots worth 0. 5x G (including three penalties) and scored nine of those while forcing saves with two of the others. Wood (two goals from 2. 8x G this season compared to 20 from 13. 4x G in the previous one) rediscovering his finishing touch could be crucial. Only two teams are worse than Forest in x G per shot and — logically — they are the league’s joint-lowest scorers in Newcastle United (0. 09) and Villa (0. 08), who played each other in an opening-weekend snoozer that ended 0-0 with just 1. 6x G generated across both teams. Newcastle’s issue, as with Forest, is in their chance conversion (under seven per cent) after losing top scorer Alexander Isak, who helped them post the third-best figure in 2024-25 (13 per cent). A big reason for this is their volume of shots from outside the box, as seen in their shooting zones map below. They have created just two chances worth over 0. 4x G. Anthony Elanga’s effort after racing through on goal was saved by Villa goalkeeper Marco Bizot, while Jacob Murphy missed from point-blank range against Wolves. Promisingly, new signing Nick Woltemade has scored close-range headers against Wolves and Arsenal from four total attempts, all of which have come inside the box. As for Villa, the ponderous nature of their in-possession play meant they average a shot every 63. 2 touches, the highest rate in the league. The low quality of their chance creation aside, their finishing has been the worst in the league at 3. 3x GOT (expected goals on target, a measure of how well-placed a shot on target is after it is taken). They have converted just two of their nine big chances and had just one chance with over 0. 5x G (Ollie Watkins’ saved shot in the 3-0 loss to Crystal Palace). Advertisement Wolves join these two teams in many of these metrics, ranking third-last in touches per shot (61. 4) and conversion rate (also under seven per cent). Vitor Pereira’s side have generated a good proportion of shots inside the box at 70 per cent, but no player has attempted more than wide attacker Rodrigo Gomes (seven, level with their striker Jorgen Strand Larsen), who has featured for just 166 minutes. A chunk of Wolves’ chances, as seen below, have come from these wide areas. Wolves have scored all four of their big chances, the best of which (worth 0. 75x G)  fell to Santiago Bueno against Tottenham last Saturday. Their issue, like others, has been an inability to churn these out with regularity. Strand Larsen getting back into his 2024-25 groove will help, and if Pereira sticks with the line-up he picked against Spurs, regular minutes for Hwang Hee-chan and Jhon Arias should get them going too. Everton are the final team to perform slightly worse than their x G. Their overall numbers allow for a rosier outlook than some of the other sides, especially because they pose a significant threat from set pieces. Thirty-two per cent of their total shots have come from dead-ball situations, only behind Sunderland, while their 25 chances from set plays is at least six higher than any other club. Everton have converted all three chances that recorded above 0. 5x G, with Iliman Ndiaye’s opener against Brighton ranking first at 0. 69. They have added a couple of stunners to that too, with Michael Keane’s headed goal against West Ham on Monday, recorded at just 0. 05x G, being an object lesson in how to divert crosses that are just a bit high. Fulham fall in the middle of the pack in terms of both shot quality (0. 107x G per shot) and conversion rate (12 per cent). Marco Silva’s side have started games strongly, getting a shot away in the opening seven minutes in four of their six. Raul Jimenez scored with one of those in the third minute against Villa last weekend. They have struggled to create good chances with consistency, though, and have benefited from two own goals (by Leeds’ Gabriel Gudmundsson and Brentford’s Ethan Pinnock). Four of their five goals have come from chances worth less than 0. 2x G, with Emile Smith Rowe’s equaliser against Manchester United the outlier at 0. 67. Seventy per cent of their shots have been from inside the box, but as the map below shows, not enough have been from central areas. Sunderland are marginally higher than Fulham in the expected-goals performance charts despite boasting a lower quality of shot (just below 0. 1x G per shot). Advertisement Their total of 16 shots on target is the joint-lowest in the league (level with Newcastle, Burnley and Villa). Like Everton, they have maximised set pieces, which have generated a league-high 34 per cent of their shots and three of their seven goals. Sunderland trail only Bournemouth, Palace and Brentford (seven) in shots created from throw-ins with six. Regis Le Bris’ promoted team have converted four of their 10 big chances, with this Lutsharel Geertruida opportunity against Forest last weekend their most glaring miss at 0. 6x G. Set-piece proficiency brings us to Arsenal, who have scored eight times already from those situations. Their bigger struggle in 2024-25 was open-play creativity, with too many passive moves against low blocks that did not result in quality opportunities. New signing Eberechi Eze should give them solutions to that, as he did in the recent game against Manchester City. Arsenal averaged 1. 1 open-play x G per game last season. Their first six games of this one have seen them surpass that tally just once — in Sunday's away win against Newcastle. A combined 1. 2 open-play x G against Liverpool and both Manchester teams does provide some cause for concern, though their set-piece prowess will keep them in most games and help them beat most sides. They have created only eight big chances from open play, fewer than City, Palace, Liverpool, Brighton, Spurs and Forest. Defender Riccardo Calafiori is Arsenal's leading shot-taker alongside new striker Viktor Gyokeres on 12 (penalties excluded). Chelsea have added a threat from set pieces in the first six games, with six of their 11 goals emerging from these situations (including an Enzo Fernandez penalty against Fulham). Their open-play x G of 5. 8 ranks seventh and they have created only seven big chances from open play, scoring four. Advertisement Where Chelsea have improved is in the quality of their finishing, with a league-high x GOT figure of 14. 1, despite attempting a sizeable chunk of their shots from outside the box, as seen below. Enzo Maresca's Club World Cup champions have scored all four of their chances worth 0. 5x G or more but have also netted three worth less than 0. 2x G. Like Arsenal, Chelsea’s set-piece strength will give them an added edge in many games. But they will need to start creating more open-play opportunities in the box, particularly if they continue to end matches with 10 men — as they have done in three out of their last four across competitions. Manchester City’s 11. 4x G is the second lowest they have managed in the first six games of a season since 2018-19 (9. 7 in 2020-21 is the lowest). Simultaneously, though, their 0. 15x G per shot is the highest in the same period. A change in approach has contributed to this, with City moving the ball between the thirds at pace using the hard-running Tijjani Reijnders and in-form Jeremy Doku. They have scored five goals from direct attacks (defined as open-play sequences that start from inside a team’s half and have at least 50 per cent movement towards the opposition’s goal, ending in a shot or a touch in the penalty box). The next highest in the opening six games since 2018-19 was three in 2022-23, Erling Haaland’s first season in Manchester. There has been proficiency in the final third, too. City have created 11 shots worth 0. 3x G or more in six matches and scored six of those, though Haaland will not want to watch back this miss in the derby against United that was worth 0. 93x G. That leaves us with leaders Liverpool, who have overperformed their x G but are experiencing their first wobble of the season after back-to-back losses to Palace in the Premier League and Galatasaray in the Champions League. Advertisement Arne Slot’s side are second in shots attempted (15. 2 per 90) behind Manchester United. They have directed 31 per cent of these on target and boast a conversion rate of 13 per cent. Liverpool’s issue has been shooting from outside the box more often (36 per cent, more than any of their ‘Big Six’ rivals, as well as Palace, Sunderland and Everton). This has led to some great goals, notably Dominik Szoboszlai’s free kick against Arsenal (0. 03x G) and Ryan Gravenberch’s neat finish against Newcastle (0. 02x G). They have been hit-and-miss with their high-quality opportunities, though, with their big-chance conversion rate of 33 per cent matching Manchester United’s. Mohamed Salah, their best attacker from 2024-25, has had just nine shots, as has summer signing, and their most potent attacker in the first six games, Hugo Ekitike. That is the same number as Gravenberch, with Cody Gakpo (15) and Szoboszlai (13) leading the way. Ekitike, to his credit, has scored three times from four shots on target and 1. 8x G. Federico Chiesa jumping off the bench to score twice from as many shots on target and 0. 7x G has helped too. The overall numbers point to a slight imbalance in the Liverpool attack, though, the consequence of a summer of change. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle Anantaajith Raghuraman (or Ananth) is a tactics and data writer covering football. He covered Indian football for Sportskeeda and analysed teams from numerous European leagues outside of the top five for Total Football Analysis prior to joining The Athletic. He is currently based in London. Follow Anantaajith on Twitter @anantaajith