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UCL Champions League Knockouts LIVE 4m ago LIVE 4m ago Erling Haaland and Antonio Rudiger are set to do battle again for Real Madrid and Manchester City Eurasia Sport Images via Getty Images This is an updated version of an article published in February. After 197 matches (qualifiers included), 16 clubs remain in the Champions League. The Athletic has ranked all the teams left. The barometers for our rankings include Opta’s projections for the remainder of their campaign, the teams’ performances in 2025-26, relative squad strength and their history in the competition. This is where we think the teams stand, from the least likely to the most likely winners. Atalanta’s comeback from a 2-0 first-leg deficit against Borussia Dortmund was a certified Champions League classic. The only Serie A representatives left in the competition also beat Chelsea 2-1 at home in December. But three of their last four Champions League matches have ended in defeats, including a damaging collapse at home against Athletic Club, losing 3-2, and a drab 1-0 defeat away at Union Saint-Gilloise. Advertisement Recent form and the momentum generated against Dortmund may galvanise this team, but Bayern will surely prove simply too strong. Even if they somehow find a way past another Bundesliga team, their side of the draw feels ominous. Leverkusen had just an 18 per cent chance of making the quarter-finals, the lowest among remaining teams before the draw. That dropped further after they drew Arsenal and is currently at 13 per cent, but they are at least on the easier side of the draw. Sixth in the Bundesliga, Leverkusen have not looked overly impressive in Europe, either. They lost 7-2 against Paris Saint-Germain and drew with Copenhagen and PSV, who finished 31st and 28th in the league phase. Spurs, who are on an 11-game winless run in the Premier League, are as unpredictable as their round-of-16 opponents, Atletico Madrid. Their hopes of Champions League qualification through the Premier League are nonexistent but, like last season, they should be up for big nights in Europe. Before the draw, Opta gave them the fifth-best chance (57 per cent) — behind Arsenal, Liverpool, Bayern and Manchester City — of making the quarter-finals, which felt a tad generous. That dropped to 46 per cent after the draw and more league defeats now have it at 35 per cent, but they find themselves on the easier side of the draw. Unlike last season, though, Spurs are mired in a genuine relegation fight, which means they cannot simply throw away games in the league. A long injury list and Igor Tudor’s Champions League record (two wins in nine matches with Juventus and Marseille) only add to the doubts swirling around this team. Galatasaray’s draw was promising. Liverpool will be difficult opponents, but Victor Osimhen can bother a defence that has struggled against physical centre-forwards. Advertisement Osimhen scored the winner in Galatasaray’s league-phase win against Liverpool. The Nigeria striker contributed to three of their seven goals against Juventus in the play-off round, assisting two with regains high up the pitch, before calmly slotting home the go-ahead goal in extra time of the chaotic second leg (illustrated in the match dashboard below). Galatasaray’s five high turnovers resulting in a goal are only bettered by four remaining teams (PSG, Newcastle United, Bodo/Glimt and Leverkusen). After pulling off one of the biggest upsets of the league phase by beating PSG 2-1, Sporting showed incredible heart to steal a 3-2 win at Athletic Club and secure a top-eight spot on matchday eight. They sidestepped Real Madrid in the last 16, having won just one of their six previous meetings against the record 15-time champions, and ended up in the easier half of the draw. Their clash with Bodo/Glimt promises to be an entertaining encounter that could go either way, but Opta gives them a 63 per cent chance of going through. Arsenal, who beat them 5-1 in their last meeting in November 2024, would likely prove a bridge too far in the quarter-finals. What a journey this has been. Bodo/Glimt were on the verge of elimination after five matches, having lost to Galatasaray, Monaco and Juventus. But a 2-2 draw with Borussia Dortmund, followed by wins against Manchester City and Atletico Madrid, saw them sneak into the play-offs. Up against Inter, finalists in two of the last three editions and the current Serie A leaders, Bodo were courageous, organised and clinical (illustrated below), and booked a maiden last-16 appearance. The 5-2 aggregate win was enough for Opta to give them a 25 per cent chance of progressing to the quarter-finals, with that rising to 37 per cent after they drew Sporting instead of a City rematch. Advertisement Bodo have never played Sporting. Their stadium in the Arctic Circle will be bouncing when the Portuguese champions visit, but Bodo proved with the 2-1 wins at the Metropolitano and San Siro that they can also be dangerous visitors. One of the most unpredictable teams in Europe, Atletico can beat Barcelona 4-0 but lose 3-0 to relegation-threatened Rayo Vallecano. In the Champions League, they edged out Inter 2-1 but lost to Bodo/Glimt while drawing 4-4 with Club Brugge on aggregate until the 48th minute of the second leg. Atletico are no longer the watertight defensive unit who use the dark arts to make deep runs in the Champions League. This is a team who have scored 84 times in 43 matches across competitions while conceding 51. For context, their last side to make a Champions League final 10 years ago conceded 31 times in 57 matches all season. Even so, forwards Julian Alvarez, Alexander Sorloth, Ademola Lookman and Giuliano Simeone will trouble Spurs’ porous defence. Of the remaining teams left in the competition, none have been more clinical with their Opta-defined ‘big chances’ than Newcastle (23 of 45 converted, 51 per cent). Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes have scored 15 times from an expected goals (x G) of 11. 7 in Europe, compared to nine from an x G of 13. 4 in the Premier League. In short, they are taking their chances in the Champions League. Despite sitting 11th domestically, Eddie Howe’s side have upped their game considerably in Europe. They made life difficult for last-16 opponents Barcelona during their league-phase meeting at St James’ Park and could have led before Marcus Rashford’s second-half double. Opta’s projections gave them a 45 per cent chance of making it into the quarter-finals, which was unchanged after the draw, and they moved up our rankings since their half of the draw looks less daunting. That has since dropped to 36 per cent, with Barcelona winning each of their last three matches across all competitions, while Newcastle have won once and lost twice. Despite suffering injuries to key players all season, Madrid are still in contention in La Liga and Europe. Advertisement The performance against Benfica was not the greatest, but in many senses, it was also a classic (illustrated below): Madrid invite all the pressure onto them, opponents fail to take their chances, and they eventually wake up and kill the game. Facing Manchester City again is far from ideal. Their league-phase meeting ended 2-1 to Pep Guardiola’s side at the Bernabeu, and City have gone from strength to strength since. Opta gave Madrid just a 36 per cent chance of making the last eight and a six per cent chance of reaching the final (lower than Sporting’s nine).  Those currently stand at 31 and five per cent respectively. Alvaro Arbeloa, like some of his successful predecessors, has leaned on individual quality in Europe, but that might not be good enough against the best teams. City look better equipped to come out on top in end-to-end games, unlike last season or in 2023-24. Counting out Madrid can backfire, but it will take something special for them to make it through this bracket. A rematch of last summer’s Club World Cup final promises to be entertaining. Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea beat PSG 3-0 with long balls over the press and clever movement to create space for Cole Palmer to exploit. This PSG team seem just as fatigued as they were entering that game, having dealt with injury issues all season. Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea have shown promise, especially in a battling 3-2 win at Napoli, but have faced familiar indiscipline issues, which are often punished in crunch knockout games. Chelsea still have the fifth-best chance to make the semi-finals (35 per cent), and have drawn against Manchester City and beaten Liverpool this season. Last season’s champions required two comebacks and were helped by two red cards to beat Monaco in the knockout play-offs. They were flat in losses to Bayern and Sporting and draws with Athletic Club and Newcastle during the league phase. But they smashed Leverkusen, Atalanta and Spurs, scoring 16 goals in the process. Advertisement PSG are also, for once, engaged in a genuine title race in Ligue 1 this season after wrapping it up early in 2024-25. All of those were reasons for Opta giving them just a 10 per cent chance of making the final and a four per cent chance of retaining their crown, and only the latter figure moved marginally after the draw to five per cent. Doubt remains over the availability of first-choice midfielders Fabian Ruiz (out since mid-January with a knee injury) and Joao Neves (who has missed their last two Ligue 1 matches with an ankle injury) for the first leg against Chelsea. But with Goncalo Ramos slowly returning to fitness and Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele returning to action from an ankle injury in their 3-1 weekend defeat to Monaco, they are ranked marginally higher than their last-16 opponents. Liverpool ended the league phase with wins against Inter, Marseille and Qarabag, scoring 10 and conceding none. Their 6. 7 x G allowed to opponents is only bettered by Arsenal (6. 2). Arne Slot’s side have looked assured in the Champions League, even while winning just four of their past 11 Premier League games. Liverpool have also been excellent from set pieces in Europe, with no remaining team managing more than their 7. 0x G per 100 set pieces. Only Atletico (seven) have scored more goals from corners than their four. Opta’s projections are backing Liverpool in the round of 16, giving them a 79 per cent chance of making the quarter-finals (only behind Arsenal’s 87 per cent and Bayern Munich’s 81). The sheer attacking firepower Barcelona have at their disposal is a cause for encouragement. Lamine Yamal, Marcus Rashford and Fermin Lopez have all been excellent in the Champions League. Raphinha is back too, while Robert Lewandowski and Ferran Torres, both on a lean run recently, are capable goalscorers. Behind them, Pedri and Frenkie de Jong are one of the best central midfield partnerships in Europe. Advertisement Their defence is a concern, however. Barcelona have conceded 14 goals in eight Champions League games, with teams pulling their high line apart with decoy offside runs and switches of play. Newcastle, as well as potential last-eight opponents Atletico, have the pace to do the same, as they have shown in their meetings with Barcelona this season. But if they are more pragmatic when required, a point raised during talks between Hansi Flick and his team last month, this side’s ceiling is incredibly high, especially having fallen into the relatively less daunting half of the draw. Gianluigi Donnarumma, Erling Haaland, Antoine Semenyo, Rayan Cherki and Jeremy Doku are capable of producing moments of magic. Granted, this is not a vintage City team in many ways, but they are still fighting for titles in four competitions. Fixture congestion could impact their Champions League campaign but their direct style seems better for a knockout competition than sustained excellence in the league. They have fallen to Madrid in each of the last two seasons, but their added pace and extra experience mean they can match the intensity of the end-to-end games that Guardiola hates. City’s chances of winning it all fell from 13 to 10 per cent, according to Opta, after ending up in the tougher half of the bracket, but that is back up at 11 per cent and they should be firm favourites behind the top two. Bayern looked invincible in the first half of 2025-26. They won 15 of their first 17 Bundesliga matches, not losing once, while their only defeat in the Champions League during that time came against Arsenal at the Emirates. There were minor wobbles against Sporting and PSV in Europe and Augsburg and Hamburg in the league, but Vincent Kompany’s side remain a force to be reckoned with. Atalanta should prove a formality on most accounts in the round of 16, while they have the firepower to take down either Madrid or Manchester City in a blockbuster last-eight fixture. Advertisement Opta makes them the second-most likely team to make the final at 32 per cent, only behind the one side they cannot meet again unless they get there… A recent blip in their Premier League form may raise doubts, but Arsenal are still the team to beat in Europe’s top five leagues. Their football is not always easy on the eye, and they have shown chinks in their largely impenetrable armour, but this team have scored 101 goals and conceded just 31 in 46 matches in 2025-26. Arsenal are excellent from set pieces, boast arguably the best defence in Europe and possess players capable of solving in-game problems on the fly. Competing on four fronts might catch up to them at some point, particularly with Manchester City breathing down their necks in the Premier League, but they have a deep enough squad to combat that issue. Arsenal could not have been handed an easier path towards a first Champions League title, something that will haunt 2024-25 league-phase winners Liverpool, who faced eventual champions PSG in the round of 16 and lost. Beat a struggling Leverkusen side and Arsenal will face Bodo or Sporting, which has seen Opta give them a 56 per cent chance of making the last four and 43 per cent chance of making the final — Bayern are next on 49 per cent and 32 per cent. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle Anantaajith Raghuraman (or Ananth) is a tactics and data writer covering football. He covered Indian football for Sportskeeda and analysed teams from numerous European leagues outside of the top five for Total Football Analysis prior to joining The Athletic. He is currently based in London. Follow Anantaajith on Twitter @anantaajith