FootyChatter.com

World Cup 2026 World Cup Draw Koji Watanabe / Getty Images The pots and procedures for the 2026 World Cup draw, finalized Tuesday by FIFA, offer the U. S. men’s national team a wide range of possibilities. At one end of the range, the USMNT could get a South American power, a world-class striker and one of only eight all-time World Cup winners. At the other end, the Americans could meet a non-threatening European side and two of the true minnows in the expanded field of 48. Advertisement And then there are many alternatives in between those extremes, paths of varying degrees of difficulty that will play a significant role in determining the legacy of this USMNT. A difficult group, of course, does not ensure failure. The U. S. emerged in 2002 from meeting hosts South Korea, Portugal and Poland. In 2014, it qualified from a group that included Portugal, Germany and longtime nemesis Ghana. This time around, though, the U. S. will shoulder enormous expectations. Failing to reach the knockout rounds next summer would be seen as a colossal missed opportunity and a letdown for a team that left Qatar in 2022 with optimism. Plus, as hosts, the Americans are in Pot 1, which means they will avoid international soccer’s biggest superpowers, including Spain, Argentina, England and France. That seeding, however, does not eliminate all possible challenges. The following is a look at some of the best-case and worst-case scenarios, as well as potential groups that might carry intriguing storylines. Tenorio: Colombia, Norway, UEFA Playoff B In this scenario, depending which team emerges from the UEFA playoffs, the U. S. would probably go into the group anything but the favorite to top it. Imagine opening up the World Cup against Erling Haaland, the goal-scoring freak motivated by making his World Cup debut. If you don’t manage a result there, you have to pivot to play an extremely capable and dangerous Colombia team, and then you close the group against a team like Ukraine, Sweden or Poland. Yuck. Bushnell: Morocco, Norway, UEFA Playoff A We agree that Norway is the scariest team in Pot 3. In Pot 2, Colombia is the best, but, in the interest of variety, I’ll note that Morocco, a 2022 semifinalist, would be similarly challenging. (So would Croatia, but, as we’ll cover below, drawing a European foe from Pot 2 would lessen the likelihood of drawing tough European opposition from Pot 3 or 4. ) Advertisement In Pot 4, the question is: Which European placeholder is least desirable? As Paul noted, path “B” almost guarantees a difficult matchup. But Italy, the favorite in Playoff A, is probably the best of the lot. Elo ratings: Colombia (5th), Norway (11th), Denmark (17th) FIFA rankings: Morocco (11th), Norway (29th), Italy (12th) Tenorio: Austria, Qatar, New Zealand This is a mix of weaker opponents and favorable scheduling. The U. S. knows it will start against a team from Pot 3. Opening up the tournament as heavy favorites against Qatar would give the USMNT a chance for a positive result and some momentum. The second game would be manageable against Austria, which is no slouch, but falls somewhere in the lower-middle of the European options. Then, if you need a result in the final group game, it’s against a New Zealand team that the U. S. would definitely expect to beat. Yes, you could hold out hope that you get the weakest-possible European side coming out of a playoff, but, on Dec. 5, you’d be rooting for the weakest teams you can see right now. This is the best-case scenario for the U. S. to win the group. Bushnell: Austria, Uzbekistan, Cape Verde (or Austria, South Africa, Jordan) As Paul covers, the thought experiment here is: From which pot do you want your European team? (Each group must have one, so a U. S. -Australia-South Africa-New Zealand pairing isn’t possible. ) Fleshed out, the question is: Do you hope for the weakest possible team from Pot 2 (Australia or Iran) and accept the subsequent likelihood of a European playoff team from Pot 4? Or hope for Scotland from Pot 3? Or would it be best to get a European team from Pot 2 because it opens up a path to Jordan, Cape Verde or New Zealand in Pot 4? Australia, Scotland and Cape Verde or New Zealand is intriguing, but I’ll go with the latter and note that drawing any side from the bottom third of Pot 3 — Uzbekistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa — would be a very favorable outcome for the USMNT. Advertisement Elo ratings: Austria (23rd), Qatar (84th), Ghana (80th) — or Iran (33rd), South Africa (77th), Bosnia and Herzegovina (68th) FIFA rankings: Austria (24th), South Africa (61st), New Zealand (86th) — or Australia (26th), South Africa (61st), Kosovo (80th) Tenorio: Iran, South Africa, Ukraine Iran’s fraught political history with the U. S. was on display in 2022, when the two nations were drawn into the same group and confronted each other in a must-win group finale. The Americans escaped with a 1-0 victory. President Donald Trump has sparred with South Africa’s government, recently protesting a G-20 summit and claiming White South Africans were being racially discriminated against. The U. S. , meanwhile, is pushing a peace plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Bushnell: Colombia, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine Trump has been at odds with Colombian president Gustavo Petro, one of the few world leaders who has been willing to openly criticize the U. S. president. (Petro recently called Trump a “barbarian” for his military attacks on boats allegedly carrying illicit drugs. ) Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has been controversial in geopolitical circles for years but is, for now, enjoying warm relations with Trump, who recently welcomed Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the White House for the first time since the 2018 killing of Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents. And lastly, for political intrigue, Ukraine is the obvious pick from Pot 4. (The U. S. cannot draw Haiti because they belong to the same confederation, Concacaf. ) Tenorio: Switzerland, Qatar, Ghana The U. S. got stomped by Switzerland this summer, a game that might have been the ground floor of Pochettino’s rebuild. A chance to go at the Swiss again at the World Cup could be seen as a marker of growth. Qatar, meanwhile, beat out the U. S. for the right to host the 2022 World Cup. The U. S. ’s history with Ghana at the World Cup is well-documented, with losses in 2006 and 2010 before finally getting a win in 2014. Advertisement Bushnell: Morocco, Norway, European minnow Morocco has now knocked the U. S. out of the U-17 World Cup, the U-20 World Cup and the men’s Olympic tournament, all in a span of 16 months. Morocco’s bid was also the one that Canada, Mexico and the U. S. beat out to host this 2026 World Cup. A group-stage matchup would be spicy. From Pot 3, it would be amazing to see Haaland at So Fi Stadium in the U. S. opener. And from Pot 4, I’d love to see a World Cup debutant like Kosovo or Albania. Tenorio: Korea Republic, Norway, Poland Games against Korea’s Son Heung-min, Norway’s Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard and Poland’s Robert Lewandowski would deliver the type of major star power you’d expect from a World Cup, even avoiding the powerhouse teams stocked with the biggest names in global soccer. Bushnell: Colombia, Egypt, Turkey Luis Díaz has never played at a World Cup. He debuted for Colombia shortly after the 2018 tournament. They then missed out on the 2022 edition. With his prime years waning, 2026 will be his golden opportunity to carry his country on a run. Egypt, meanwhile, has Mohamed Salah, who is in decline but still talented. Turkey, which beat the U. S. in a June friendly, has two dynamite 20-year-old attackers, Arda Güler and Kenan Yildiz. Austria, Tunisia, Slovakia We close with a reminder that, for all the potential excitement detailed above, the most likely scenarios are far more boring. Forget the exact teams listed above; there are dozens of possibilities that would yield the reaction: Hm, OK. In most of these scenarios, the U. S. will be favored to advance from — though maybe not win — its group. Its legacy will be earned in the knockout rounds. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle